Poisson Tool
Predict scorelines and outcomes from each team's expected goals using the Poisson model.
How to Use This Calculator
- Input the home team’s expected goals (from your own analysis or xG data)
- Input the away team’s expected goals
- Read off probabilities for home win, draw, away win, over/under 2.5, and BTTS
- Use the scoreline probability grid for specific score predictions
Formula
Poisson Probability: P(k) = (λ^k × e^(-λ)) / k!
Where λ = expected goals, k = actual goals scored
Scoreline Probability = P(Home = h) × P(Away = a)
Assumes home and away goals are independent events.
Frequently Asked Questions
How is the Poisson distribution applied to betting?
The Poisson distribution is a statistical model that estimates the probability of a set number of events (goals) happening within a fixed window. In football betting it’s commonly used to project match scorelines from expected goals averages.
Where do I get expected goals?
Pull expected goals (xG) from football statistics sites. Alternatively, work out a team’s average goals scored per game from recent fixtures. More advanced models factor in home advantage, opponent strength, and current form.
How reliable is the Poisson model?
Poisson gives a solid baseline for football forecasts. Its key weakness is the assumption that goals are independent events, which doesn’t always hold (think momentum swings or red cards). It performs best on pre-match predictions in leagues with steady scoring patterns.
Which markets does Poisson suit?
Poisson is most often applied to 1X2 (match result), correct score, over/under goals, and both teams to score (BTTS) markets. It can also be adapted for Asian handicaps and half-time/full-time predictions.